The looming January 19th TikTok ban deadline is coming up.

We read the law and every possible expert opinion we could find to help predict what could happen next. Based on our findings, here are all of the potential outcomes:

1️⃣ The incoming administration could intervene. President Trump has notoriously flip-flopped his stance on TikTok, but he is most recently known for showing his support of the app. He even met with the CEO of ByteDance in mid-December. While we don’t believe he can outright prevent the ban since there is bipartisan support and it was signed into law, he could negotiate a solution. This could include convincing ByteDance to sell or he could encourage the DOJ not to enforce the law while he negotiates.

2️⃣ The Supreme Court hears TikTok’s case and overturns or pauses the law. ByteDance is arguing that banning TikTok is unconstitutional on the grounds of free speech. However, since other platforms support free speech and TikTok has the option to remain in the US if they separate from ByteDance, it seems like there is a slim chance that the Supreme Court will overturn the ban. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on Friday, Jan. 10.

3️⃣ ByteDance divests from TikTok, falling into compliance with the law. The chance of this happening by the Jan. 19th deadline is unlikely since ByteDance has been vocal about its refusal to sell. That said, ByteDance may get the deadline extended if they start to play ball.

4️⃣ TikTok is “banned” on January 19th. Since there is no precedent for a ban of this scale reports say that, practically, this means it would just be removed from app stores at the start. It is still TBD what an actual ban of the app would look like and how long it would take to fully remove access from Americans. If the ban goes into effect, China could also agree to approve of ByteDance selling TikTok after the fact, which could allow TikTok back in the US.

5️⃣ The TikTok ban sticks, making room for other apps to fill the void. Right now the apps most likely to absorb the fallout would be Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and Pinterest. There are also rumblings of newer apps trying to take its place, but none have gotten escape velocity (we’ll be sure to let you know if we see one that looks promising).

As a brand what should you do to prepare for the possible TikTok Ban?

• Be prepared to shift budgets to other short-form video platforms including YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels.
• If you have influencer campaigns running when the ban goes into effect, keep in mind TikTok should still be usable in the US for a few weeks to a few months, so you should still see the benefits of finishing out those campaigns.
• To be safe, add a line in your contracts with creators now that says if TikTok gets banned where you would want them to post instead.

No matter what happens, we’re here for you! For the latest updates on the TikTok ban and how we got here, check out our blog post about the ban’s timeline.👇

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